COMMENTARY| There are a lot of Republicans, including, according to ABC News, Karl Rove, who think that a drawn-out primary will benefit their party in this election cycle the way a similar process aided Democrats in 2008. Don't bet $10,000 on it. In fact, there is little substantive similarity between the two situations.
First, consider the optics. The Democratic battle of 2008 featured a mesmerizing African-American politician and one of the most recognized women in the world. No matter the result, it was destined to be historic. For the first time, a major American political party would nominate for president someone other than a white male. By contrast, when the Republican contest shakes out, its remaining candidates will likely be three white men whose average age is a whisker short of seventy. A long primary will cement in people's minds the idea of the Republicans as the white patrician party. While that may play well with white patricians, it is guaranteed to give pause to other parts of the electorate--and it certainly provides nothing to ignite the imagination.
And then there is the substance. Although candidates Obama and Clinton certainly had their disagreements (remember the three in the morning phone call?), they more often found themselves in lockstep on everything from universal health care to ending the war in Iraq to preserving Social Security. Since these issues were popular with the American people, the long contest reminded voters how much they actually agreed with Democratic positions. Consider, by contrast, how the electorate views the major Republican views in this election cycle. All of the Republicans running reject any tax hike on the rich, while according to a recent Bloomberg poll more than half of all Americans think the wealthy should pay more taxes to help bring down the deficit. The Ryan plan, which would turn Medicare into a voucher system, is sure to get more exposure the longer the Republican contest continues. But a Quinnipiac poll this May showed sixty percent opposed to changing Medicare into a voucher system. And according to a Fox News poll, sixty-six percent of Americans think there should be a path for illegal immigrants to citizenship, while Newt Gingrich gets booed for suggesting someone who has lived here illegally for a quarter of a century might be allowed to stay. The longer the primary contest, the more people will wake up to just how out of step the Republican Party's positions are with the views of the majority of Americans.
Finally, let's not forget the audience participation feature of this year's debates, as GOP crowds did everything from boo gay soldiers to cheer on executions to applaud the prospect of denying the uninsured life-saving treatment. Is there any doubt that an extended primary contest will present us with even more of these precious moments? And is there a reason to take Rove's prediction any more seriously than Romney claims to have taken his wager?
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